The recovery in crude shipments erodes Tehran's strategic leverage in diplomatic negotiations with the US, though the resilience of the waterway comes at a massive operational cost to the US Navy. However, a bottleneck persists in the export of refined products, with gasoline and diesel flows remaining well below pre-war levels. This shortage of finished fuels continues to support high crack spreads and elevated prices for consumers even as crude exports rebound.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Hormuz Oil Flows Hit 14.5M BPD and Sink Brent Crude 2%
Commodities21 days ago
Energy markets shifted on Monday after data showed that Iran's ability to control regional oil transit is deteriorating. Brent crude futures fell more than 2% as shipping estimates from analyst Rory Johnston placed the seven-day moving average of flows through the Strait of Hormuz at approximately 14.5 million bpd as of last Friday. This volume marks a rise from earlier Kpler estimates of 13.1 million to 13.2 million bpd, trending closer to the pre-war baseline of 17.1 million bpd.
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