Possible scenario
Fragile Partial Normalization
25% Chance
Traffic remains open but volatile as naval escorts, Iranian signaling and sanctions enforcement create periodic disruptions. Markets stop extrapolating a clean reopening, keeping a moderate security premium in crude and freight rates.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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