Possible scenario
Sustained Hormuz Recovery
45% Chance
The most likely path is that tanker traffic remains near the newly reported 14.5 million bpd level as US-Iran talks and Saudi operational repairs keep lanes open. Brent remains under pressure, but OPEC+ rhetoric and lingering security risk limit a disorderly price drop.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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