Possible scenario
Military Re-Escalation
20% Chance
The recovery reverses if a mine scare, drone strike or Israeli-Iranian exchange triggers fresh shipping avoidance. This remains a minority outcome, but the April halt and September blockade show that the route can deteriorate quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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