GOP Narrowly Leads

38%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republicans remain ahead in Florida’s combined early and mail vote, but the margin stays much smaller than party strategists expected. The result points to a competitive turnout environment rather than a decisive Republican wave.

What it moves

Finance+0.1%
Energy+0.1%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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