Democrats Overtake

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Democrats convert their mail-ballot advantage and urban early-vote strength into a small statewide lead before Election Day. That would be a notable warning sign for Republicans in a state they have treated as reliably red.

What it moves

Energy−0.3%
Healthcare−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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