Possible scenario
Counting Disputes
10%
−0.4%
Close margins and heavy turnout lead to disputes over ballot curing, provisional ballots or county-level reporting delays. The most likely effect is political uncertainty rather than a large or durable market reaction.
What it moves
- Finance−0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals−0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.