The push follows Musk's confirmation on SpaceX's third quarter earnings call that both companies formed special committees of independent directors to evaluate a combination. Following the remarks and SpaceX's $4.4 billion quarterly profit, SpaceX shares rose 12% and Tesla gained 3.5%, adding $284 billion in combined market value and lifting their total valuation to roughly $3.6 trillion. On prediction market Kalshi, the probability of a merger before 2028 reached 85%.
JPMorgan analysts projected a SpaceX led all stock acquisition offering a 30% to 35% premium for Tesla, which would unite shared AI infrastructure, chip development, and 30,221 bitcoin worth about $2.5 billion on a single balance sheet. Still, Musk noted that the committees have not agreed on terms and that a deal faces a high governance bar at Tesla, where Musk holds 20% voting power compared with more than 80% at SpaceX and approval requires a 50% affirmative vote from all outstanding shares.