Possible scenario
Conditional Approval
20% Chance
The Trump administration allows the merger but imposes conditions around government contracts, satellite data, procurement, and intercompany financing. This outcome reflects a pro-deal antitrust posture balanced against Pentagon, NASA, and national-security sensitivities.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- TSLA+1.7%
- SPCX+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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