Possible scenario
Early 2027 Agreement
40% Chance
Musk's advisers successfully convert the merger committees' work into a formal all-stock agreement before the 2028 election cycle becomes more politically contested. A Trump-aligned FTC makes a fast review more plausible, though valuation and governance terms remain the central market issue.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- TSLA+5.0%
- SPCX-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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