Possible scenario
Negotiations Slow
25% Chance
The committees continue talks but cannot settle valuation, board control, related-party protections, and legal exposure quickly enough for an early-2027 close. This path is plausible because both firms have unusually complex shareholder bases, regulatory relationships, and Musk-linked governance issues.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- TSLA-4.7%
- SPCX-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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