Possible scenario
Regional Spillover
10%
−1.0%
The Yemen-Saudi conflict begins affecting the Red Sea corridor or draws sharper involvement from the United States and other external powers. This remains less likely than a contained Saudi-Houthi exchange, but it carries the largest short-term market tail risk.
What it moves
- Energy+1.8%
- Consumer Services−1.0%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.