Houthi Retaliation Lands

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Houthis answer the raids with drones or ballistic missiles against Saudi infrastructure. Given recent attacks on Riyadh, airports, and Aramco-related targets, this is a credible near-term escalation path with larger market consequences.

What it moves

Energy+2.0%
Consumer Services−1.5%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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