Contained Air Escalation

40%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Saudi Arabia sustains intensive airstrikes across Houthi-held provinces while the Houthis avoid an immediate high-impact retaliation. Fighting remains severe inside Yemen, but oil export flows and major Saudi civilian infrastructure continue operating.

What it moves

Energy+0.5%
Consumer Services−0.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Oil prices▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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