Export Compromise Emerges

22%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Commerce Department responds by considering a middle path: stricter tracking and performance caps, but no blanket ban on all Nvidia China AI chip shipments. This outcome protects some Nvidia revenue while allowing the administration to claim national-security safeguards.

What it moves

Technology+0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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