• 

  38%+0.3%

  Deal Proceeds Quietly

  OpenAI limits public criticism of China chip exports while preserving the Nvidia-backed data-center leasing structure. Washington criticism continues, but neither the White House nor Congress immediately disrupts the $100 billion Nvidia-linked arrangement.

  Technology +0.6%

• 

  27%−0.7%

  Congressional Backlash Builds

  Lawmakers frame OpenAI’s shift as evidence that private AI infrastructure financing is undermining export-control policy. The most likely consequence is hearings, document requests, and reputational pressure rather than immediate cancellation of licenses or leases.

  Technology −1.4% · Business Services −0.2%

• 

  22%+0.1%

  Export Compromise Emerges

  The Commerce Department responds by considering a middle path: stricter tracking and performance caps, but no blanket ban on all Nvidia China AI chip shipments. This outcome protects some Nvidia revenue while allowing the administration to claim national-security safeguards.

  Technology +0.1%

• 

  13%−0.1%

  Deal Terms Reworked

  OpenAI and Nvidia modify the financing or lease guarantees to reduce perceived conflicts between AI policy advocacy and supplier dependence. This is less likely because both parties have strong incentives to preserve capacity commitments, but it becomes plausible if legal or board pressure intensifies.

  Technology −0.2% · Finance +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.