• 

  38%+0.6%

  Liquidity Calms Rout

  The PBOC’s 1 trillion yuan emergency facility is accepted by investors as credible short-term stabilization. State funds and large brokerages help absorb selling, producing a tradable rebound even if concerns about banks and unemployment remain.

  Finance +1.0% · Technology +1.0% · Non-Energy Materials +0.9%

• 

  30%−0.9%

  Stress Remains Contained

  The liquidity line reduces immediate funding risk but does not stop persistent equity outflows. Policymakers rely on incremental support, leaving markets weak but not yet in a systemic break.

  Consumer Cyclicals −1.4% · Finance −1.2% · Non-Energy Materials −1.1%

• 

  20%+2.3%

  Policy Package Expands

  Authorities decide that liquidity alone is insufficient and add explicit equity, property, or bank-capital support. This would likely create a sharper near-term rally, though questions about moral hazard and implementation would remain.

  Finance +3.8% · Non-Energy Materials +3.1% · Consumer Cyclicals +2.5%

• 

  12%−3.8%

  Banking Stress Escalates

  Investors interpret the emergency facility as evidence that hidden losses and deposit stress are worse than disclosed. Selling spreads from equities to credit-sensitive assets, prompting expectations of capital injections or forced mergers among weaker lenders.

  Finance −5.1% · Non-Energy Materials −3.8% · Consumer Cyclicals −3.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.