• 

  45%

  +0.6%

  Ceasefire Framework Advances

  Washington and Moscow move toward a ceasefire framework based on freezing current front lines, monitored demilitarized zones, and phased sanctions relief. Ukraine is pressured to accept terms after Zelenskyy had already signaled openness to a front-line freeze, though Kyiv seeks security guarantees and European funding commitments.

  Industrials −0.8% · Non-Energy Materials +0.7% · Finance +0.6%

• 

  25%

  −0.4%

  Kyiv And Europe Resist

  Ukraine and key European governments object to a settlement drafted without Kyiv at the table, arguing that front-line freezes and demilitarized zones would reward Russian aggression. Negotiations continue, but the diplomatic process becomes more fragmented and immediate ceasefire expectations fade.

  Technology −0.5% · Finance −0.4% · Industrials +0.2%

• 

  20%

  −0.6%

  Russia Exploits Split

  Moscow uses the appearance of direct U.S.-Russia diplomacy to intensify pressure on Kyiv, seeking better facts on the ground before any freeze. The absence of Ukraine from the Trump-Dmitriev meeting undermines allied coordination and increases near-term escalation risk.

  Industrials +1.2% · Energy +1.0% · Technology −0.5%

• 

  10%

  −0.9%

  Talks Abruptly Collapse

  The apparent diplomatic momentum reverses after disagreements over enforcement, sanctions relief, Ukrainian sovereignty, or NATO-linked guarantees. Because the headline had implied a deal was near, a breakdown would produce a sharper short-term repricing of geopolitical risk.

  Energy +1.3% · Industrials +1.2% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.5%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.