The friction stems from leaked audio obtained by The New York Times, in which Paxton told donors and lobbyists that a GOP midterm convention in Dallas caused polling numbers for all Republican candidates to drop. While Texas Senator John Cornyn responded to the leak with a one-word "Whoops," Vice President JD Vance said he is not concerned about the remarks and pledged support for the "tough and difficult race." Prediction markets on Kalshi now give Paxton a 34% chance of winning, while Sean Spicer suggested the GOP may need $150 million to $200 million to hold the seat against James Talarico.
