Possible scenario
Talarico Flips Texas
42% Chance
James Talarico converts Paxton’s weak favorability and legal baggage into a narrow Democratic win. Trump’s rally energizes the GOP base but does not fully repair Paxton’s standing with suburban Republicans and independents.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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