Possible scenario
Paxton Comeback Wins
36% Chance
Trump’s personal intervention helps Paxton consolidate Republican voters and recover enough soft GOP support to hold the seat. The race remains close, but Texas’s partisan baseline and turnout advantage ultimately overcome Paxton’s controversies.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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