Possible scenario
Disputed Close Race
14% Chance
The race lands inside recount or litigation territory, with mail ballots, provisional ballots, and county-level certification disputes delaying a final call. Given Paxton’s history of election litigation and Trump’s endorsement, both parties mobilize legal teams quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.