The tightening race is occurring in a state Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2024 and where Republicans have held the Senate seat for 94 years. A senior Senate GOP aide described the environment as a "perfect storm," suggesting the current president is not helping the Republican effort. Private polling and a GSG survey showing Hamilton with 47% to Marshall's 43% had already signaled a shift in the deep-red seat.
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
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Democrat Adam Hamilton Takes Lead in Kansas Senate Polling Average
US Politics16 days ago
Decision Desk HQ’s latest polling average shows Democrat Adam Hamilton edging out incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 0.2 percentage points, with 45.6% to 45.4%. This shift follows a NYT/Siena poll showing the candidates tied at 45% each and a Trafalgar poll that places Hamilton at 44.4% against Marshall's 43.5%. Despite the narrow lead in recent polls, Decision Desk HQ maintains Marshall as the favorite with a 77% win probability in the forecast.
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