Possible scenario
Hamilton Narrow Upset
35% Chance
Hamilton converts his polling-average lead into a narrow Democratic pickup in a traditionally Republican state. The result is most plausible if moderate Republicans who backed former GOP governors continue crossing over and abortion-rights voters remain engaged after Kansas's 2022 referendum.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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