Possible scenario
Marshall Narrow Win
37% Chance
Marshall recovers enough Republican voters to win despite Hamilton's early October polling lead. Kansas's partisan lean, late GOP spending and national Republican messaging ultimately outweigh Hamilton's crossover appeal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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