Possible scenario
Recount Finish
16% Chance
Neither candidate establishes a durable lead, and the race closes inside recount territory. This outcome is realistic because Hamilton's polling advantage is small and Kansas's partisan fundamentals still favor Marshall.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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