• 

  45%

  0.0%

  Damage Contained Locally

  The most likely outcome is that the Ryazan refinery suffers meaningful but localized damage, with Rosneft taking several processing units offline while preserving broader Russian crude exports. Moscow absorbs the hit through inventories, rerouting, and emergency repairs, keeping the market impact focused on refining margins and Russian domestic fuel availability.

  Energy +0.4%

• 

  25%

  −0.1%

  Campaign Expands Further

  Ukraine continues the pattern suggested by the timeline and uses long-range drones to pressure additional Russian refining assets. The objective is to raise Russia’s repair burden, constrain fuel supplies, and force Moscow to divert air defenses from the front and urban centers.

  Energy +1.0%

• 

  20%

  −0.1%

  Russia Retaliates Hard

  Moscow answers the Ryazan strike with a larger campaign against Ukraine’s electricity grid and gas infrastructure. This outcome fits the prior escalation pattern in October 2026 and raises geopolitical risk without necessarily disrupting global oil supply directly.

  Energy +0.3% · Industrials +0.2%

• 

  10%

  −0.5%

  Export Risk Escalates

  A lower-probability but more market-sensitive path is that the refinery campaign spills toward Russian export logistics, including ports, pumping stations, or product terminals. Even limited damage near export routes would matter more for global benchmarks than a refinery-only outage.

  Energy +1.8%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.