Damage Contained Locally

The most likely outcome is that the Ryazan refinery suffers meaningful but localized damage, with Rosneft taking several processing units offline while preserving broader Russian crude exports. Moscow absorbs the hit through inventories, rerouting, and emergency repairs, keeping the market impact focused on refining margins and Russian domestic fuel availability.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.