Talks Continue Without Truce
0.0%
The most likely path is that Abu Dhabi produces a process but no immediate ceasefire, consistent with Lavrov’s rejection and Putin’s stated refusal to freeze the front. Russia keeps demanding recognition of territorial gains, while Ukraine refuses concessions on sovereignty but accepts continued diplomatic contact.
What it moves
- Industrials+0.1%
- 10-year Treasury yield
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.