Talks Break Down

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The talks could fail quickly if Russia makes recognition of the annexed regions a precondition and Ukraine refuses to discuss territorial concessions. A breakdown would reinforce expectations of a longer war and could be followed by intensified strikes or fresh Western aid commitments.

What it moves

Industrials+0.9%
Consumer Cyclicals−0.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Talks Break Down

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