Phased Ceasefire Framework

A less likely but market-relevant upside case is that Lavrov’s rejection of an immediate ceasefire leaves room for a phased arrangement rather than a full refusal. UAE mediators could frame local or monitored pauses as confidence-building steps without requiring either side to accept a permanent territorial settlement.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.