GOP Keeps House

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Harvie’s win becomes a major Democratic pickup but not enough to flip the chamber. Republicans retain formal control, though Fitzpatrick’s defeat reduces the moderate bloc and leaves the majority highly exposed to absences and defections.

What it moves

Energy+0.3%
Industrials+0.2%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?