Possible scenario
U.S. rejects offer
−0.6%
Washington decides Zelenskyy’s offer is insufficient and maintains the threat of cutting off or delaying Patriot interceptors. The refusal keeps Ukraine’s air-defense shortage acute and raises the probability of further Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
What it moves
- Energy+0.6%
- Industrials+0.2%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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