Possible scenario
Rhetoric meets constraints
22%
0.0%
Russia’s claim that it can reroute all gas exports proves more political than operational. Pipeline geography, contract negotiations, sanctions, and pricing disputes leave a large share of former European export capacity stranded or shut in.
What it moves
- Energy−0.2%
- Oil prices
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.