Possible scenario
Europe manages exit
30%
−0.1%
The EU continues moving toward a legal ban on remaining Russian gas imports while replacing volumes through LNG, Norway, North Africa, Azerbaijan, storage, and demand management. This outcome is disruptive but largely anticipated after the end of Ukrainian transit and the EU’s 2026 policy steps.
What it moves
- Energy+0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials−0.4%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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