• 

  

  38%0.0%

  Asia reroute advances

  Russia makes partial progress rerouting gas from Europe toward China and other Asian buyers, but infrastructure constraints prevent a full replacement of lost European demand. The most realistic path is more pipeline commitments, higher discounts, and incremental LNG and Central Asian swaps rather than an immediate diversion of all volumes.

  Energy +0.5%

• 

  

  30%−0.1%

  Europe manages exit

  The EU continues moving toward a legal ban on remaining Russian gas imports while replacing volumes through LNG, Norway, North Africa, Azerbaijan, storage, and demand management. This outcome is disruptive but largely anticipated after the end of Ukrainian transit and the EU’s 2026 policy steps.

  Energy +0.9% · Non-Energy Materials −0.4% · Industrials −0.3%

• 

  

  22%0.0%

  Rhetoric meets constraints

  Russia’s claim that it can reroute all gas exports proves more political than operational. Pipeline geography, contract negotiations, sanctions, and pricing disputes leave a large share of former European export capacity stranded or shut in.

  Energy −0.2%

• 

  

  10%−0.9%

  Energy confrontation escalates

  The dispute hardens into a broader sanctions and retaliation cycle involving remaining Russian LNG, Turkish transit, insurance, shipping, and financing. This is less likely because both sides have already reduced direct dependence, but it would produce the largest short-term market reaction.

  Energy +1.9% · Utilities −1.3% · Non-Energy Materials −0.7%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.