NY Fed Forecasts Negative Goods Inflation After Court Strikes Trump Tariffs

US Markets3 days ago

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York projects that consumer goods will enter a period of deflation by early 2027. This shift follows a rapid decline in the inflationary impact of trade duties after the Supreme Court struck down emergency tariffs previously implemented by Donald Trump.

Those tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation at their peak in February 2026, and the New York Fed found that prices would have fallen slightly without the duties. Roughly one-third of that inflation came from American-made products as domestic factories paid more for imported inputs and faced less pressure to hold prices down.

Mapped to your portfolio

Possible scenarios

45%Disinflation Baseline Holds+0.5%
25%Fed Stays Cautious-0.4%
20%Tariff Policy Returns-0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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NY Fed Forecasts Negative Goods Inflation After Court Strikes Trump Tariffs

In this story

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Supreme Court of the United States Donald Trump

Portfolio

SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
100%

Portfolio

SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
100%

Mapped to your portfolio

Possible scenarios

45%Disinflation Baseline Holds+0.5%
25%Fed Stays Cautious-0.4%
20%Tariff Policy Returns-0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.