Possible scenario
Fed Stays Cautious
25% Chance
The NY Fed goods-price forecast is acknowledged, but policymakers and investors focus on sticky services inflation, wages, shelter, and healthcare costs. The market reaction is muted because the report does not materially change the expected near-term Fed stance.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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