Possible scenario
Disinflation Baseline Holds
45% Chance
The NY Fed forecast becomes the consensus baseline: removal of broad Trump-era tariffs produces a modest but visible drag on goods prices. Markets treat the report as incremental confirmation of softer inflation rather than a major new shock.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
- Technology +0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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