Possible scenario
Tariff Policy Returns
20% Chance
The disinflationary impact is partially offset by renewed political and legal efforts to replace the struck-down global tariffs with narrower trade measures. Markets price some risk that tariff relief proves temporary, especially for import-heavy retailers and manufacturers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Technology -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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