This shift follows a September Toluna-Harris poll showing Le Pen leading rivals in hypothetical runoffs, including a 69% to 31% lead over far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Support for center candidate Edouard Philippe has dropped to 10% in recent surveys, while Le Pen maintained a 57% to 43% advantage over him in similar runoff scenarios.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Marine Le Pen Hits 45% Probability of Winning French Presidency
World17 days ago
Widespread student unrest and more than 5,000 arrests have accelerated the momentum of far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the race for the French presidency. Market predictors now assign a 45% probability that Le Pen will become the next leader of France, reflecting a widening gap between her and her opponents as political chaos increases.
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