Possible scenario
Republican Front Holds
30% Chance
A broad anti-Le Pen coalition coalesces in the runoff, as in prior French presidential elections. This outcome would likely reduce French political-risk premia and support domestic financials and regulated infrastructure names.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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