Possible scenario
Left-Led Presidency
15% Chance
A left-wing candidate reaches the second round and wins by assembling anti-RN voters. The market impact turns on whether the winner is a pragmatic social democrat or a harder-left figure promising taxes, price controls, and looser fiscal policy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Utilities -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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