Rerouting And Rationing

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Governments and producers partially offset the Hormuz shock through pipelines, inventory draws, fuel switching, and refinery run cuts. This does not solve the conflict, but it caps near-term crude price upside by reducing spot demand for Gulf cargoes.

What it moves

Consumer Services+0.4%
Energy−0.3%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Oil prices▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?