Maritime De-Escalation

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

+1.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Back-channel diplomacy through Oman, Qatar, and Japan creates limited guarantees for civilian oil tankers. Tehran preserves leverage but accepts monitored transit to avoid losing remaining buyers and provoking wider strikes.

What it moves

Energy−2.9%
Industrials+1.8%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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