Prolonged Partial Disruption

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Iran keeps pressure on Gulf shipping but avoids a full closure that would invite a larger U.S.-led military response. Tankers continue moving under naval escort, but insurance, fuel, and routing costs keep Gulf crude availability well below prewar levels.

What it moves

Energy+2.2%
Consumer Cyclicals−1.4%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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