Direct Military Escalation

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−4.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Further Iranian attacks on tankers or U.S.-linked cargoes trigger direct strikes on launch sites, radar, or IRGC naval assets. The immediate market reaction would be crisis-like because traders would price a risk of temporary Hormuz closure and broader U.S.-Iran conflict.

What it moves

Energy+6.0%
Industrials−5.0%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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