Republicans Barely Hold

28%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republicans outperform the late forecasts just enough to retain control, with incumbents or replacement nominees surviving in at least two of the races Democrats need. This remains realistic because the Democratic edge is described as narrow and late polling errors in Senate races are common.

What it moves

Energy+0.6%
Finance+0.5%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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