Possible scenario
Clear Democratic Wave
20%
−0.9%
The late-cycle Democratic advantage broadens into a clearer wave, with suburban and independent voters moving against Republican Senate candidates. This is less likely than a narrow outcome but consistent with the sequence of rating shifts in Alaska and Kansas.
What it moves
- Energy−1.3%
- Finance−1.1%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- 10-year Treasury yield
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.