• 

  45%

  −0.2%

  Scrutiny Without Rule Change

  Congress presses Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for documents and testimony about China access to restricted AI chips, but the near-term outcome remains investigative rather than legislative. This is the most likely path because congressional pressure often precedes agency action, and Commerce already has tools to review compliance.

  Technology −0.3%

• 

  30%

  −1.2%

  Commerce Closes Loopholes

  The congressional probe accelerates Commerce Department action on export-control gaps involving China buyers and third-party cloud access. The most direct risk is a narrower but meaningful hit to Nvidia’s China-permitted AI chip revenue and to U.S. cloud providers leasing restricted capacity.

  Technology −2.2% · Business Services −0.4%

• 

  15%

  −1.0%

  Formal Enforcement Probe

  Congressional questioning turns into a formal referral or enforcement review focused on whether Nvidia, distributors, or cloud intermediaries enabled restricted China access. This is less likely than document-heavy scrutiny but would create a sharper company-specific overhang.

  Technology −1.5%

• 

  10%

  +0.3%

  Political Issue Fades

  The inquiry loses momentum because Nvidia’s disclosures do not reveal a clear violation and lawmakers struggle to agree on a tougher statutory approach. This outcome would reduce the near-term risk discount on Nvidia’s China-permitted products.

  Technology +0.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.